S-Curve Stock Screening

When to use

When Joseph asks to find S-curve (early growth phase) Indian stocks in a sector, evaluate them beyond PE ratio, or create domain-specific watchlist notes. This is the growth-sleeve companion to the dividend-focused indian-stock-analysis skill.

Workflow

1. Read the framework

Always start by reading /opt/data/wiki/wealth/invest/research/s-curve-sectors/s-curve-framework.md — the 7-point checklist, scoring system, and allocation rules are defined there.

2. Identify companies in the sector

Use Screener.in's peer comparison feature (navigate to any company in the sector → Peers tab) to get the full list. Also search for sector-specific screens.

3. Pull Screener.in data for each company

Navigate to https://www.screener.in/company/{TICKER}/consolidated/ or the standalone page if consolidated isn't available. Extract key metrics:

From the overview snapshot:

• Current Price, Market Cap, Stock P/E, Book Value, Dividend Yield, ROCE, ROE
• Pros and Cons (AI-generated — use as clues, not conclusions)

From browser_console (use scripts/extract_screener_data.js from indian-stock-analysis skill):

• Annual P&L: Sales, PAT, OPM, EPS for last 5-10 years
• CAGR tables: Sales growth, Profit growth, Stock price growth
• Balance Sheet: Equity, Reserves, Borrowings, Total Assets
• Cash Flow: CFO, FCF, CFO/OP
• Ratios: Debtor Days, Inventory Days, Working Capital Days, ROCE trend
• Shareholding: Promoter, FII, DII trends

4. Apply the 7-point S-curve framework

For each candidate, compute:

1. Revenue Growth Quality — 3Y and 5Y CAGR + TTM trend

2. Market Penetration — company revenue ÷ estimated TAM

3. Operating Leverage — OPM trend over 3 years

4. PEG Ratio — PE ÷ lower of 3Y and 5Y PAT CAGR. Flag divergence >500 bps as growth deceleration.

5. Earnings Quality — CFO/PAT ratio and trend

6. Capital Allocation — ROCE trend, D/E, promoter pledge, dilution

7. Smart Money Signal — promoter/FII/DII holding trends

Score each 1-10 and compute weighted total.

5. Write the domain watchlist

File: /opt/data/wiki/wealth/invest/research/s-curve-sectors/s-curve-{sector-slug}.md

Structure:

• Sector Thesis — structural tailwinds, penetration %, TAM estimate
• Company Overview Table — all companies with key metrics at a glance
• Detailed Analysis — per company with narrative, numbers, concerns
• Summary Ranking — ranked table with verdict (DEEP DIVE / WATCH / PASS)
• Next Steps — which to analyze deeply, which to track, which to discard
• Historical Snapshots — dated entries for each review

6. Assign verdicts

• 🟢 DEEP DIVE — run full analysis using indian-stock-analysis skill
• 🟡 WATCH — track quarterly, wait for trigger
• ⚪ NOT S-CURVE — good company, wrong strategy bucket
• 🔴 PASS — disqualifying issues

7. Update watchlist

Add a section to /opt/data/wiki/wealth/invest/research/watchlist.md under a new ## S-Curve Growth Sleeve section, linking to each domain watchlist.

Key metrics for S-curve (different from dividend framework)

Metric	S-Curve	Dividend
Primary metric	Revenue CAGR	Dividend Yield
Valuation anchor	PEG ratio	P/E vs history
Cash flow check	CFO/PAT > 0.8	CFO covers dividend 1.5x+
Debt tolerance	Can have debt if ROCE > cost	Should be low or declining
Exit trigger	Revenue growth deceleration 3+ quarters	Dividend cut
Holding period	3-5 years	Indefinite

Pitfalls

1. Defense order lumpiness — revenue can swing 50%+ QoQ. Look at annual/TTM trends, not quarterly.

2. PE is misleading — don't reject a stock solely because PE > 50. Check if PEG < 1.5.

3. Promoter selling is a hard stop — in growth companies, promoters selling >5% in a year is disqualifying unless there's a clear non-worrying reason (e.g., IPO lock-in expiry with partial sell-down).

4. TTM growth can be misleading — a single large order can spike TTM. Verify with order book and multi-year CAGR.

5. Screener.in consolidated vs standalone — some companies only have standalone data. Note which you're using.

6. Currency — all in ₹ Crores. Don't mix.